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Oil lower on firm dollar, market shrugs off Russian supply cuts
  + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Oil storage tanks stand at the RN-Tuapsinsky refinery, operated by Rosneft Oil Co., at night in Tuapse, Russia. Oil prices inched lower in volatile trade on Monday, as a stronger dollar and fears of recession risks offset gains arising from Russia's plans to deepen oil supply cuts. A firm dollar makes commodities priced in the U.S. currency more expensive for holders of other currencies. Adding to the downside pressure, U.S. crude oil inventories surged to the highest level since May 2021 last week, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Oil prices have fallen by about a sixth in the year since Feb. 24, 2022, when Russian troops first marched into Ukraine.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe oil market is looking for tangible signs of the 'old Chinese appetite,' analyst saysVandana Hari of Vanda Insights says the oil market hasn't gotten signs of China's pre-Covid appetite, which could appear only in the second quarter.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo uncertainties are the reason that OPEC is standing still, analyst saysVandana Hari of Vanda Insights discusses the outlook for oil prices and the factors that might affect it, such as Russia and China's reopening.
Jan 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday, set to gain more than 6% for the week, on solid signs of demand growth in top oil importer China and expectations of less aggressive interest rate rises in the United States. Brent crude futures rose by 5 cents to $84.08 a barrel by 0746 GMT, off a session low of $83.50. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 13 cents to $78.52 a barrel after falling to $77.97 earlier in the session. Brent has jumped 6.7% so far this week and WTI is up 6.2%, recouping most of last week's losses. A weaker greenback tends to boost demand for oil, as it makes the commodity cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe oil market has been almost entirely driven by sentiment, analyst saysVandana Hari of Vanda Insights discusses China's reopening and outlook for the oil market in 2023.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1, or 1.31%, to $76.19 after climbing 90 cents on Monday. Oil prices have been buoyed by U.S. plans announced last week to buy up to 3 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after this year's record release of 180 million barrels. A weaker dollar has also supported prices, making oil cheaper for those holding other currencies. "The oil demand outlook will be key for how high crude prices can go," he said, adding that clarity on that could prove elusive given mixed signals on the reopening of China's economy. While China has been relaxing pandemic restrictions, a surge in COVID-19 cases has been bearish for oil markets because of uncertainty over the country's economic recovery, said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng.
Oil prices edge higher; China COVID surge limits gains
  + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Isabel Kua | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SINGAPORE, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices inched higher on Tuesday, supported by a softer dollar and a U.S. plan to restock petroleum reserves, but gains were capped by uncertainty over the impact of rising COVID-19 cases in top oil importer China. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 32 cents, or 0.4%, to $75.51 a barrel, after climbing 90 cents in the previous session. Oil prices have been buoyed by a U.S. plan announced last week to buy up to 3 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve following this year's record release of 180 million barrels from the stock. A weaker greenback has also supported prices, making oil cheaper for those holding other currencies. U.S. crude oil stocks were expected to have dropped last week by about 200,000 barrels, while gasoline and distillates inventories were seen higher, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are very few pockets of growth and optimism where oil demand is concerned, says analystVandana Hari of Vanda Insights says the gloomy scenario is "not all that surprising but it's probably overdone."
China is purchasing Russian crude at the steepest discounts in months, Reuters reported. "They don't really care about the price cap. While China has said it won't abide by the price cap on Russian oil that the G7 and EU imposed, it could give Moscow's customers more bargaining power in oil deals, according to analysts from Rystad Energy in a recent note. But for now, sources told Reuters that China-Russia oil traders were doing business as usual. "They don't really care about the price cap.
Traders are largely expecting policymakers to make a 50-basis-point rate hike, a smaller move than the previous four 75-basis-point increases. But next week's adjustment isn't what's top of mind for Wall Street's top Fed commentators — they're looking ahead to next year. To Bridgewater chief investment officer, Rebecca Patterson, the Fed would be justified in surprising markets by holding rates higher for longer. Sustained elevated rates are going to usher in dramatic changes to the economic landscape — and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers agrees. The price cap on Russian oil is "immaterial" and won't make a significant difference on market pricing, according to Vanda Insights.
The European Union's price cap on Russian oil started Monday, and it's set to $60 a barrel. The CEO of Vanda Insights told Bloomberg that the impact of the price cap on markets, however, will be muted. "Even as the price cap has been set currently at $60, it's above five dollars above where Russian crude has been trading towards the end of last week." "It's certainly not going to achieve one of its critical aims, which was to try and crimp Russian oil revenues," Hari said. Hari said it will be the combination of weak demand in China and a global economic downturn that determine how oil prices move, rather than the price cap on Russian crude.
Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday after oil supply to parts of Eastern and Central Europe via a section of the Druzhba pipeline was temporarily suspended, according to oil pipeline operators in Hungary and Slovakia. “From all accounts, China is persisting with its zero-COVID policy, which is a natural dampener for oil market sentiment,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. That has dampened the oil demand growth outlook, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting demand growth to slow to 1.6 million bpd in 2023 from 2.1 million bpd this year. Earlier, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its forecast for 2022 global oil demand growth for a fifth time since April citing mounting economic challenges. Industry data showing a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles provided some support to oil prices.
Oil falls by more than $1/bbl as demand fears linger
  + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Andrew KellyLONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell by more than $1 per barrel on Tuesday as bearish economic data from key global economies heightened demand fears. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterSupply and demand fundamentals remain largely stable, leaving economic sentiment centre-stage for the oil market, said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. Signs of uncertain economic activity in the United States and China, the world's two biggest oil consumers, continued to weigh on prices on Tuesday. Government data on Monday showed China's crude oil imports in September were 2% lower than a year earlier, continuing a trend of lower imports at the same time it reported slowing retail sales. U.S. crude oil inventories are also expected to rise this week, which may limit price gains.
International benchmark Brent crude futures gained 3 cents to $93.29 per barrel by 0652 GMT, after falling 0.3% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December delivery rose 11 cents to $84.69 per barrel, after a previous decline of 0.6%. Supply and demand fundamentals remain largely stable, leaving economic sentiment at the centre-stage for the oil market, Hari added. U.S. crude oil inventories are also expected to rise this week, which may limit price gains. Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by 200,000 barrels in the week to Oct. 21.
International benchmark Brent crude futures gained 27 cents to $93.53 per barrel by 0415 GMT, after falling 0.3% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December delivery rose 36 cents to $84.94 per barrel, after a previous decline of 0.6%. Supply and demand fundamentals remain largely stable, leaving economic sentiment at the centre-stage for the oil market, Hari added. read moreU.S. crude oil inventories are also expected to rise this week, which may limit price gains. Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by 200,000 barrels in the week to Oct. 21.
Brent crude futures rose 53 cents, or 0.6%, to $92.16 a barrel by 1245 GMT, recovering from a 6.4% fall last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 34 cents, or 0.4%, at $85.95 after a 7.6% decline last week. China will further increase reserve capacities for key commodities, another state official told a news conference in Beijing. The third-quarter GDP data, along with September activity data, is due for release on Oct. 18 at 0200 GMT. Meanwhile a strong U.S. dollar and further interest rate increases from the U.S. Federal Reserve are helping to contain price gains.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOPEC faces a challenge of 'crystal ball-gazing,' says analytics firmVandana Hari of Vanda Insights says the challenge for OPEC and the wider oil market pertains to the severity and timing of the economic downturn, and "connecting the dots" to what it would mean for oil demand.
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